TMTPost -- European experts warn that the possible export curbs resulted from China’s probe into pork could lead to severely dampen the industry of the Europe.


Credit： China Central Television

Europe’s pork industry faces a "nightmare scenario" of lower prices and falling profitability if China decides to impose restrictions following its anti-dumpling investigation, Reuters cited industry executives and analysts. "The full suspension of EU pork exports to China would be a potential nightmare scenario for the pork supply chain, with implications across the EU," said Justin Sherrard, global strategist animal protein at Rabobank.

Sherrard expected that the disruption would be felt across pork supply chains in Europe, resulting in lower prices and profit margins on unwanted stock produced by the region's farmers. The analyst doubted the ability of the EU exporters to find alternative markets for pork muscle meat cuts that are currently delivered to China, even though he did’t rule out their successful filling the vacancy of Chinese imports over time.

The report noted the ability to export pig meat including parts like ears, noses and feet help generate a higher value of the whole carcass for the EU pork industry for these parts are largely not favored in Europe while have strong demand from Chinese customers. If offal is targeted, China would need to import more offal from other countries where it is not consumed in the local market, a separate report cited a livestock analyst, who pointing out much of the imports from Europe are not muscle meat.

.China initiated an anti-dumping investigation into certain pork and pig by-products imported from the EU from June 17 Monday, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced that day. The ministry said it will probe into certain pork and pig by-products originating from the EU from Jan. 1, 2023 to Dec. 31, 2023, and will also investigate any damage done to related Chinese industries from Jan. 1, 2020 to Dec. 31, 2023. The probe is expected to conclude by June 17, 2025, but may be extended by half a year under special circumstances, the ministry said.

The ministry said it decided to launch the investigation in response to an application submitted by the China Animal Agriculture Association (CAAA) on behalf of the domestic industry, which has met all the conditions for filing an anti-dumping probe. The EU accounted for 54% of total Chinese imports of the investigated pig products between 2020 and 2023, according to a document submitted by CAAA to the commerce ministry.

China imported 1.55 million tons of pork last year and slightly more than half of it came from Europe, according to customs data. Spain was the largest EU supplier, with sales of 382,000 tons. The Netherlands and Denmark, as the second and the third exporter to China, last year exported pork products worth US$620 million and $550 million respectively.

"What we hope is that the relationship between the EU and China will always be a good one, and we are working to ensure that this good relationship continues," Interporc, which represents Spanish pork producers, said last Friday, a day after the state-backed newspaper Global Time learned Chinese industries had filed an application to competent authorities to launch the anti-dumping investigation. Lobby group Danish Agriculture& Food Council warned on Monday that the country's pork sector would be hit incredibly hard by any restrictions on sales to China.

The Eu was not worried about China opening its investigation, said a spokesperson for the European Commission on Monday. The spokesperson also said the bloc would intervene appropriately to ensure the investigation complied with all relevant World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.